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Last Updated: Friday, 2 May, 2003, 01:56 GMT 02:56 UK
Victorious Bush eyes re-election

By Nick Bryant
BBC Washington correspondent

The White House has produced a striking backdrop for George W Bush's speech to the American people that marks the end of the major combat phase of the war.

USS Abraham Lincoln
The USS Lincoln was carefully chosen as a speech venue

His decision to deliver the speech from the flight-deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier that has spent the last 10 months in the Gulf, now steaming towards its home port produced striking symbols of victory.

And it was not just the speech, but the dramatic image of the president landing on the carrier deck and emerging in a fighter pilot's suit and hugging the sailors, that will have made an impact.

From the "saving" of Private Jessica Lynch to the Texas homecoming of the seven American PoWs, this has been the most stage-managed war in American history. Wartime presidential appearances have had the feel of campaign rallies - which has been exactly the intent.

As part of its communications strategy, the White House is packaging Mr Bush as "the national security president".

In post 11-September America, it has lent him the aura of political invincibility.

Home front

On the home front, the president has emerged from the war with his reputation enhanced.

The dominant view in the US is that the war was a success - that Iraq has been liberated with minimal sacrifice in American lives.

Mr Bush has come across as self-assured. On the eve of war, he had an almost princely serenity.

Oddly, people here seem prepared to overlook details that do not fit the White House script - the uncertainty surrounding the fate of Saddam Hussein and the failure to uncover any weapons of mass destruction.

"Heavy combat operations" were also brought to an inconclusive end in Afghanistan on Thursday, without the capture of Osama Bin Laden. But once again, it does not appear to have harmed the president.

Anniversary

So is a prized second term, the true yardstick of a successful presidency, inevitable?

The Bush administration certainly has reason to be confident.

It hopes to raise a massive $200m by November 2004, twice as much as in 2000.

Its convention will be staged in New York, just days before the third anniversary of the 11 September attacks.

President Bush
The president increasingly appears with the troops

Mr Bush's speaking schedule is already being tailored to take in key battleground states.

And the re-election campaign will be orchestrated by Karl Rove, who masterminded his 2000 victory and the Republicans' stunning success at last November's mid-term elections.

Crucially, this White House also appears to have learnt from the mistakes of the first Bush administration.

Over the past two weeks, the president has signalled a tactical shift, trying to focus on domestic rather than foreign affairs.

For Mr Bush, the faltering economy presents his greatest challenge.

Some two-million jobs have been lost since January 2001.

Mr Bush believes his huge tax cut will stimulate the economy.

But critics believe it will merely increase the budget deficit, worrying the already jittery markets.

If history is our guide, economic security has always been more important than national security come election time.

I happen to think the attacks of 9/11 may have changed that, in the short-term at least. We shall see next November.

Appeal to the right

The other lesson that George Bush junior has drawn from his father is the need to shore up his base - the Republican right, who were angered by George Bush senior's tax rises.

The son has tried repeatedly to strengthen his base by nominating right-wing federal judges, brandishing his muscular Christianity and being swayed by neo-conservative foreign policy experts.

Sailor aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln
Bush is hoping military victory will swing the election his way

But when the next vacancy appears on the Supreme Court - a position which right-wingers want filled by an anti-abortion judge - he will be faced with a troublesome political dilemma.

Like his father, Mr Bush has always tried to fudge the abortion issue, knowing the stridency of "pro-life" activists alienates moderate, swing voters.

But his right-wing base will be looking for moral clarity on the issue - and an anti-abortion court.

The next presidential election is not a one-horse race.

Many things can go wrong for Mr Bush in the coming months.

And as the Iraq conflict has shown, he has become a polarizing figure. At least a third of the US electorate, it seems, would not vote for him under any circumstances.

Perhaps a majority might come to believe the country needs a president who can make friends with the rest of the world.

Perhaps one of the Democrats will "catch fire" - unlikely though that may seem.

But right now, George W Bush is projecting the aura of a winner.

As he appears on the flight-deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, he has to be considered the Top Gun in the race.




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